Posts In: Idea Exchange

Philip Hutchinson October 29, 2018 Idea Exchange

A few thoughts on Progressive

Geoff and Andrew did a podcast last week where they discussed all of Geoff’s picks when he wrote the Singular Diligence newsletter. One of those stocks was Progressive (ticker PGR). Progressive is primarily a personal auto insurer. The best thing you can do to familiarise yourself with the company is, obviously, to read Geoff’s report. Progressive’s stock is a lot more expensive than it was when Geoff wrote his report, and it’s a lot more expensive than his appraisal of the company as well. But…...

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Luke Elliott October 9, 2018 Idea Exchange

DHI Group (NYSE: DHX)

This will be short and sweet. DHI Group (NYSE: DHX) is the parent company of subsidiaries that are engaged in online career sites and services. Think indeed.com or monster.com. Their major platforms (assets) are Dice.com, ClearanceJobs.com, and efinancialcareers.com. The sites are more targeted to specific groups than their larger competitors with dice.com being geared towards technology/software professionals and the other two, I’m sure you can guess. The company’s performance over the last decade has been less than stellar. Ten years ago today, the stock price…...

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hiddenvalue August 7, 2018 Idea Exchange

CountPlus (CUP)

  CountPlus Investment Thesis Market data Ticker:                         ASX:CUP Price:                            $0.66 Net debt:                    ~$0m Market cap:               AU$74m   Elevator pitch After years of poor performance, a revolving door at the C suite and ongoing restructuring charges/impairments, recent insider buying gives us confidence that CountPlus has reached an inflection point in its turnaround. Looking through the one-off charges to cash profitability and assuming no improvement in operating margins (~10% vs. peers >20%) we believe the shares are selling for a pre-tax free cash flow yield of 14%. As the turnaround begins to show up…...

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Geoff Gannon June 27, 2018 Idea Exchange

Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP)

I did an initial interest post on this company on June 27th, 2018: https://focusedcompounding.com/maui-land-pineapple-mlp-900-acres-of-hawaiian-resort-land-for-250000-an-acre/ This thread is the place for members to ask me questions about the stock, discuss it among themselves, etc. I’ll start things off by providing links to other opinions on Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP). Here is a May 15th, 2017 Seeking Alpha post on the stock.  Here is a June 1st, 2016 post on Medium.  This is the 2016 Oddball Stocks post I linked to in my initial interest write-up…....

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George Baxter May 8, 2018 Idea Exchange

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust (ILPT)

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust (Nasdaq: ILPT) Summary: ILPT is a busted REIT spin/IPO with high-quality assets trading at a 35% discount to NAV. As a recent spin, ILPT has limited coverage and buy-side recognition. The company’s assets, which are located in Hawaii and the Mainland US, are 99.9% leased with an average lease duration of 11.2 years, and contractual rent-resets provide a clear pathway for modest organic growth. ILPT’s leverage of 2.6x net debt/EBITDA is less than half the peer median of 5.3x, and it’s…...

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Kevin Wilde April 20, 2018 Idea Exchange

Vestas Wind Systems A/S (OCSE:VWS)

Opportunity Summary: Vestas holds the top position among wind turbine manufacturers. The industry has attractive economics (high ROIC) and long-term growth prospects; wind as an energy source has crossed the threshold of being able to compete with fossil fuels without the aid of subsidies. Vestas (>16% market share in cumulative capacity & new builds), Siemens Gamesa (~15% market share), and GE (~12% market share) are the dominant players.  Due to scale advantages and cost cutting initiatives started in 2011, Vestas has the best EBIT margin…...

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Geoff Gannon April 15, 2018 Idea Exchange

AutoNation (AN)

I’m creating this thread to start discussion of AutoNation (AN). The stock was written up by Dave Rottman here: https://focusedcompounding.com/autonation-an-a-cheap-cannibal-with-minimal-downside/ It’s a nearly 6,000 word article. So, I wanted to focus in on one specific point (mentioned in the title). AutoNation is a “cannibal” as Charlie Munger would say. It eats its own shares up. I thought a table might help. Shares Outstanding 1998: 471 million 2003: 287 million 2008: 178 million 2013: 123 million Today: 92 million Anyway, this is the place to ask…...

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Geoff Gannon April 15, 2018 Idea Exchange

Computer Services Inc., “CSI” (CSVI)

This is the core processor stock that was just written up by Jayden Preston: https://focusedcompounding.com/computer-services-inc-csvi-an-unlisted-but-super-predictable-company-trading-at-an-unleveraged-p-e-of-15-times-next-years-earnings/ I also spent the better part of today’s Sunday Morning Memo on CSVI. You can find that memo entitled “Fear, Greed, and Boredom” here: https://focusedcompounding.com/memos/ Since CSVI doesn’t file with the SEC, it’s not on EDGAR. For that reason, I thought I should include links to the specific pages where you can find “EDGAR-like” information on the company. The company’s “Disclosures” page over at OTCMarkets.com has annual reports going as…...

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Philip Hutchinson April 13, 2018 Idea Exchange

Facebook – making implicit assumptions explicit

Obviously, Facebook has been in the news a lot recently. And Geoff has written a couple of articles that touch on the company directly and indirectly. Also, I’ve been reading up on the company recently and thought it would be interesting to post about whether Facebook could be a value investment.   This is basically just addressing directly some of the implicit assumptions that get made when you look at a fast growth stock like Facebook. I’m not going to go into Facebook as a…...

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Andre Kostolany April 5, 2018 Idea Exchange

National Cinemedia (NCMI)

Would very much appreciate everyone’s thoughts / comments / feedback / criticism. If there’s interest, I might follow-up with a full writeup. Notes NCMI has the #1 market share for on-screen advertising (about 50%) The industry is an oligopoly with NCMI and Screenvision having about 85% market share Basically NCMI owns the right to run a 30-minute pre-movie show in its founding members US theaters, which includes advertising. This right is backed by long-term exhibitor agreements with the founding members which, to the best of…...

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