Posts In: Idea Exchange

Andre Kostolany November 9, 2019 Idea Exchange

Bank of N.T. Butterfield: A great wealth franchise and interest rate derivative

Bank of N.T. Butterfield (NTB) Overview N.T. Butterfield (NTB) is a Bermuda-based bank whose shares trade on the New York stock exchange. Bermuda’s corporate taxfree status, together with a conservative culture helps Butterfield generate a superior return on equity with limited risk. That’s right, Butterfield doesn’t pay taxes! History After English explorer George Somers crashed into the island in 1609, N.T. Butterfield first opened its doors as a trading firm in 1758 and later received its banking license in 1858. For a long stretch of...

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Jayden Preston November 5, 2019 Idea Exchange

Qurate Retail: The Perfect Candidate for a Leveraged Turnaround?

Qurate Retail     Prelude   This is the year 2019. And shopping has never been easier. Browse for a product on Amazon, and tens of thousands of options show up; with just one click, your chosen product will be by your doorstep in 1 to 2 days. Shopping online offers the broadest range of products and the convenience to receive your purchased item without even leaving your room. And while Amazon has close to half of the US e-commerce market, most retailers now have...

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Warwickb November 4, 2019 Idea Exchange

Ardent Leisure Group Ltd (ASX:ALG): Follow-up Post

Post by Warwick Bagnall This is a brief follow-up to my earlier post regarding ALG.  In that post I wrote that I would write the company up in full if I found that it was robust.  I didn’t find that ALG was robust but decided to summarise why anyway.  Again, for the reasons mentioned in that post, I’m going to focus mostly on ALG’s chain of entertainment centres, Main Event (ME). What I found was that there are few constraints to growth for ME to...

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miguelneto October 21, 2019 Idea Exchange

GrafTech: Contracted Cash Flows Covering 60% of the Market Cap

Written by Miguel Neto.    There are some pictures I couldn’t put in this write-up that I included in the write-up I put up on my blog (https://netosnotes.blogspot.com/2019/09/graftech.html) *****   GrafTech (ticker: EAF) has been in operation since 1886. It went public in 2018 when Brookfield sold 15% of the business, after being taken private in 2015. GrafTech is a backward vertically integrated producer of ultra-high power (“UHP”) graphite electrodes (“GE”), an industrial consumable product used primarily in EAF (“electric arc furnace”) steel production. Around...

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Warwickb September 12, 2019 Idea Exchange

Ardent Leisure Group Ltd (ASX:ALG): Initial Interest Post and Request for Scuttlebutt

Posted by: Warwick Bagnall ALG consists of two main parts; the Dreamworld/White Water World theme park in Queensland, Australia and the Main Event chain of family entertainment centres in the US.  I’m interested in ALG mainly to try and understand why it is the largest position (>20% and growing) of a value/activist LIC (Ariadne Australia Ltd, ASX:ARA) which I hold.  ALG is cheap compared to its past share price and on a (depressed) P/S basis but it has been loss making since 201. Hence this...

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Ney Torres September 11, 2019 Idea Exchange

A Different view on Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) “Optionality has value”!

A Different view on  Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), an issue is rather complex. Here I may refer to both institutions as “government-sponsored entities” or (“GSEs”). But YOU as an investor should focus on what’s knowable and controllable.Here is what the market is missing an my variant perspective: “Optionality has value”! Here is my invitation to you investor: see Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at current price as an option, that could go to $0 or to $17.55 each. You would really be paying for the optionality.You...

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Andrew Kuhn August 21, 2019 Idea Exchange

How Does Warren Buffett Apply His Margin of Safety?

March 26, 2011   Someone who reads the blog sent me this email. Geoff, In a previous email to me you explained how Warren Buffett values a company.  The text that your wrote was: “He wants his investment to increase 15% in value. For every $1 of capital he lays out today he wants a day one return of 15 cents. That means a 15% free cash flow yield or buying a bank with an ROE of 15% at 1 times book or buying something...

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Andre Kostolany July 18, 2019 Idea Exchange

Kingstone: A simple New York homeowners insurer

Kingstone Insurance Kingstone Insurance (KINS) is a multi-line provider of personal and commercial insurance. The company distributes predominately through independent brokers and agencies with a high touch model. The vast majority of premiums underwritten today have been in the state of NY in home property insurance. More recently, the company has begun branching out into neighboring states such as Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and New Jersey. What is unique about Kingstone is their willingness to operate with smaller rural agencies. While most insurance companies require significant minimum...

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miguelneto June 11, 2019 Idea Exchange

Highly Cash Generative Aquarium Operator

By: Miguel Neto Ticker: S85 Straco Corporation Limited, quoted on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) Background Straco Corporation develops and acquires assets in touristic locations, and the founder and his wife collectively own 55% of the shares, with the other big shareholder being a state-owned enterprise. As of today, they own and run two aquariums in China (Shanghai Ocean Aquarium and Underwater World Xiamen), a cable car in Lintong Mountain and a giant flywheel in Singapore. In 2018, they received 4.98mn visitors with the majority being...

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Andre Kostolany April 6, 2019 Idea Exchange

Citigroup Capital Securities XIII – a high yield trust preferred from Citi

This is a writeup for Citigroup Capital Securities XIII, or Citi N’s. Citi N’s are trust preferred obligations of Citigroup. Why write up a pref instead of a stock? This one has some interesting special features. A trust preferred is basically a subordinated debt obligation of the issuer. It ranks above common equity, above preferred shares but below senior in the capital structure. Coupons on subordinated debt are deferrable for up to five years but cumulative, meaning that if Citi cannot pay the coupon on...

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