Posts In: Idea Exchange

Kevin Wilde April 20, 2018 Idea Exchange

Vestas Wind Systems A/S (OCSE:VWS)

Opportunity Summary: Vestas holds the top position among wind turbine manufacturers. The industry has attractive economics (high ROIC) and long-term growth prospects; wind as an energy source has crossed the threshold of being able to compete with fossil fuels without the aid of subsidies. Vestas (>16% market share in cumulative capacity & new builds), Siemens Gamesa (~15% market share), and GE (~12% market share) are the dominant players.  Due to scale advantages and cost cutting initiatives started in 2011, Vestas has the best EBIT margin...

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Geoff Gannon April 15, 2018 Idea Exchange

AutoNation (AN)

I’m creating this thread to start discussion of AutoNation (AN). The stock was written up by Dave Rottman here: https://focusedcompounding.com/autonation-an-a-cheap-cannibal-with-minimal-downside/ It’s a nearly 6,000 word article. So, I wanted to focus in on one specific point (mentioned in the title). AutoNation is a “cannibal” as Charlie Munger would say. It eats its own shares up. I thought a table might help. Shares Outstanding 1998: 471 million 2003: 287 million 2008: 178 million 2013: 123 million Today: 92 million Anyway, this is the place to ask...

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Geoff Gannon April 15, 2018 Idea Exchange

Computer Services Inc., “CSI” (CSVI)

This is the core processor stock that was just written up by Jayden Preston: https://focusedcompounding.com/computer-services-inc-csvi-an-unlisted-but-super-predictable-company-trading-at-an-unleveraged-p-e-of-15-times-next-years-earnings/ I also spent the better part of today’s Sunday Morning Memo on CSVI. You can find that memo entitled “Fear, Greed, and Boredom” here: https://focusedcompounding.com/memos/ Since CSVI doesn’t file with the SEC, it’s not on EDGAR. For that reason, I thought I should include links to the specific pages where you can find “EDGAR-like” information on the company. The company’s “Disclosures” page over at OTCMarkets.com has annual reports going as...

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Philip Hutchinson April 13, 2018 Idea Exchange

Facebook – making implicit assumptions explicit

Obviously, Facebook has been in the news a lot recently. And Geoff has written a couple of articles that touch on the company directly and indirectly. Also, I’ve been reading up on the company recently and thought it would be interesting to post about whether Facebook could be a value investment.   This is basically just addressing directly some of the implicit assumptions that get made when you look at a fast growth stock like Facebook. I’m not going to go into Facebook as a...

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Andre Kostolany April 5, 2018 Idea Exchange

National Cinemedia (NCMI)

Would very much appreciate everyone’s thoughts / comments / feedback / criticism. If there’s interest, I might follow-up with a full writeup. Notes NCMI has the #1 market share for on-screen advertising (about 50%) The industry is an oligopoly with NCMI and Screenvision having about 85% market share Basically NCMI owns the right to run a 30-minute pre-movie show in its founding members US theaters, which includes advertising. This right is backed by long-term exhibitor agreements with the founding members which, to the best of...

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Geoff Gannon March 31, 2018 Idea Exchange

NACCO (NC)

As I’m writing this: the stock is back down to $32.85 a share, which is basically what I bought my shares at back in October. So, I wanted to point that out to members who thought the stock was more expensive than when I looked at it and so not worth a look. You can, if you want, get shares at basically the price I got mine. The company’s first annual report as a stand alone business came out. And they also have transcripts of...

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Geoff Gannon March 23, 2018 Idea Exchange

Keweenaw Land Association (KEWL)

I’m creating this thread so there’s a place for members to discuss this stock and especially the April 12th board election. I wrote a full article about the stock here: https://focusedcompounding.com/keweenaw-land-association-buy-timberland-at-appraisal-value-get-a-proxy-battle-for-free/ The company sent out another letter today: https://keweenaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/KLAL-Letter-to-Shareholders-3-23-2018.pdf Check OTCMarket.com page for the ticker KEWL: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/KEWL/news And also the company’s own site (but, remember, the company won’t post anything from Cornwall there. OTCMarkets.com will): https://keweenaw.com/company-reports/ Those are the links you need for information. This is the place to discuss the stock. For those wanting...

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Kevin Wilde February 5, 2018 Idea Exchange

AA PLC (LSE:AA)

Opportunity: Long-time market leader in UK roadside assistance. Very little competition (RAC, Greenflag) in durable, niche industry. Incredibly predictable, high return on capital business. Strong competitive advantages: high customer retention, high switching costs, strong brand, excellent economies of scale / high barriers to entry. Normalized FCF ~315MM; EV 3.440B; FCF / EV yield of 9.1%. Risks: Highly leveraged after sale by private equity owners.   Mature, slow growing industry. Exposure to loss of insurance referral business in the future (autonomous vehicles). Recent management turnover....

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Philip Hutchinson December 18, 2017 Idea Exchange

Young and Co’s Brewery PLC

I recently mentioned, commenting on Jayden Preston’s excellent post analysing the Cheesecake Factory, one of my holdings, Young and Co’s Brewery PLC (“Young’s”). I thought it would be interesting to do a write-up of the company as it’s a very interesting company and also one that, I suspect, most members may not have heard of.   You can find information on the company here:   http://www.youngs.co.uk/   http://www.youngs.co.uk/investors   https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/00032762/filing-history?page=1  [this link is to Young’s entry at the registry of publicly available company filings in...

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Kevin Wilde December 18, 2017 Idea Exchange

Dice Holdings (NYSE:DHX)

I was wondering if anyone here has looked at Dice Holdings or has a good working knowledge of the Staffing & Outsourcing industry?  The stock looks very attractive if it can be stabilized under new management.  ...

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