Posts In: Idea Exchange

Ney Torres September 11, 2019

A Different view on Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) “Optionality has value”!

A Different view on  Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), an issue is rather complex. Here I may refer to both institutions as “government-sponsored entities” or (“GSEs”). But YOU as an investor should focus on what’s knowable and controllable.Here is what the market is missing an my variant perspective: “Optionality has value”! Here is my invitation to you investor: see Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at current price as an option, that could go to $0 or to $17.55 each. You would really be paying for the optionality.You...

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Andrew Kuhn August 21, 2019

How Does Warren Buffett Apply His Margin of Safety?

March 26, 2011   Someone who reads the blog sent me this email. Geoff, In a previous email to me you explained how Warren Buffett values a company.  The text that your wrote was: “He wants his investment to increase 15% in value. For every $1 of capital he lays out today he wants a day one return of 15 cents. That means a 15% free cash flow yield or buying a bank with an ROE of 15% at 1 times book or buying something...

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Andre Kostolany July 18, 2019

Kingstone: A simple New York homeowners insurer

Kingstone Insurance Kingstone Insurance (KINS) is a multi-line provider of personal and commercial insurance. The company distributes predominately through independent brokers and agencies with a high touch model. The vast majority of premiums underwritten today have been in the state of NY in home property insurance. More recently, the company has begun branching out into neighboring states such as Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and New Jersey. What is unique about Kingstone is their willingness to operate with smaller rural agencies. While most insurance companies require significant minimum...

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miguelneto June 11, 2019

Highly Cash Generative Aquarium Operator

By: Miguel Neto Ticker: S85 Straco Corporation Limited, quoted on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) Background Straco Corporation develops and acquires assets in touristic locations, and the founder and his wife collectively own 55% of the shares, with the other big shareholder being a state-owned enterprise. As of today, they own and run two aquariums in China (Shanghai Ocean Aquarium and Underwater World Xiamen), a cable car in Lintong Mountain and a giant flywheel in Singapore. In 2018, they received 4.98mn visitors with the majority being...

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Andre Kostolany April 6, 2019

Citigroup Capital Securities XIII – a high yield trust preferred from Citi

This is a writeup for Citigroup Capital Securities XIII, or Citi N’s. Citi N’s are trust preferred obligations of Citigroup. Why write up a pref instead of a stock? This one has some interesting special features. A trust preferred is basically a subordinated debt obligation of the issuer. It ranks above common equity, above preferred shares but below senior in the capital structure. Coupons on subordinated debt are deferrable for up to five years but cumulative, meaning that if Citi cannot pay the coupon on...

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JakeCompounder March 30, 2019

Gaia (GAIA): A Strange Value Investment in a Strange Streaming Service

Gaia operates a streaming service like Netflix, but for yoga, meditation, and weird conspiracy videos. They have many great titles, like “The Baltic Sea Anomaly; A Crashed UFO Or Natural Rock Formation?” or “Cannabis Spirituality: Using Plant Medicine as a Sacred Tool”. The company is run by its founder, Jirka Rysavy, who owns over 32% of the company’s stock. Rysavy is an experienced entrepreneur who founded Corporate Express, which became a Fortune 500 company before merging into Staples. Gaia is growing extremely fast, but has...

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JakeCompounder March 18, 2019

Inspira Financial (LND.V): Liquidation of Business Provides Low Risk Opportunity

*I own shares in this company, and it is a very illiquid stock Inspira Financial trades under the ticker LND.V on the TSX Venture exchange in Canada, and trades OTC under the ticker LNDZF in the US. While the stock has more volume in Canada, LNDZF is very illiquid. For most of my purchases of LNDZF, my trades accounted for the entire trading volume that day of the stock. Inspira Financial is selling for about $4.8 million USD, or $6.4 million CAD. The company reports...

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Philip Hutchinson October 29, 2018

A few thoughts on Progressive

Geoff and Andrew did a podcast last week where they discussed all of Geoff’s picks when he wrote the Singular Diligence newsletter. One of those stocks was Progressive (ticker PGR). Progressive is primarily a personal auto insurer. The best thing you can do to familiarise yourself with the company is, obviously, to read Geoff’s report. Progressive’s stock is a lot more expensive than it was when Geoff wrote his report, and it’s a lot more expensive than his appraisal of the company as well. But...

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Luke Elliott October 9, 2018

DHI Group (NYSE: DHX)

This will be short and sweet. DHI Group (NYSE: DHX) is the parent company of subsidiaries that are engaged in online career sites and services. Think indeed.com or monster.com. Their major platforms (assets) are Dice.com, ClearanceJobs.com, and efinancialcareers.com. The sites are more targeted to specific groups than their larger competitors with dice.com being geared towards technology/software professionals and the other two, I’m sure you can guess. The company’s performance over the last decade has been less than stellar. Ten years ago today, the stock price...

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hiddenvalue August 7, 2018

CountPlus (CUP)

  CountPlus Investment Thesis Market data Ticker:                         ASX:CUP Price:                            $0.66 Net debt:                    ~$0m Market cap:               AU$74m   Elevator pitch After years of poor performance, a revolving door at the C suite and ongoing restructuring charges/impairments, recent insider buying gives us confidence that CountPlus has reached an inflection point in its turnaround. Looking through the one-off charges to cash profitability and assuming no improvement in operating margins (~10% vs. peers >20%) we believe the shares are selling for a pre-tax free cash flow yield of 14%. As the turnaround begins to show up...

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