Geoff Gannon January 3, 2007

On Old Posts and a New Year

I started this blog on Christmas Eve 2005 with this post. So, the blog is now just over one year old heading into 2007.

In the weeks ahead, I’ll review some of the posts of the past year as well as the performance of the twenty or so stocks discussed on this blog during 2006.

Different people started reading this blog at different times; so, I’ll use the start of 2007 as an opportunity to collect and organize past posts in a way that makes sense to relatively new readers.

Personal Favorites

I guess I should start by presenting my personal favorites from 2006 (in no particular order):

On Confidence

On Inflexible Enterprises

On Maintenance Cap-Ex and “The Pleasant Surprise”

On Formulaic Investing

On Value Investing

On Conviction and the Value Gap

On the Physical Effects Fallacy

On Technical Analysis

On Some Lessons from Buffett’s Annual Letter

On Paying a Fair Price

In Defense of Extraordinary Claims

Normalized P/E Ratios

Recently, I’ve written a lot of posts on normalized P/E ratios as part of a little study on valuations conceived as an attempt to offer some idea of what kind of long-term returns investors can expect from the stock market:

On 15-Year Normalized P/E Ratios for the Dow

On Normalized P/E Ratios and the Election Cycle

On Normalized P/E Ratios and the Election Cycle (Again)

On Normalized P/E Effects Over Time

On Calculating Normalized P/E Ratios

On the Difference Between Actual Earnings and Normalized Earnings

On the Dow’s Normalized Earnings Yields for 1935-2006

In Defense of Extraordinary Claims

On Normalized P/E Ratios Over Six Decades

Company Specific Posts

I spent much of the year writing about individual stocks. These are simply posts in which I discuss a specific company at length. You’ll need to actually read the posts to see what I thought about the stock at that time. Also, remember that some of these stocks are now priced very differently. Please use the date of the post to determine what the price was when the post was written. Here is a collection of my company specific “analysis” type posts (again, in no particular order):

An Analysis of Blyth (BTH)

An Analysis of Energizer Holdings (ENR)

An Analysis of Lexmark International (LXK)

An Analysis of Journal Communications (JRN)

An Analysis of the Journal Register Company (JRC)

An Analysis of Nintendo (NTDOY)

An Analysis of (OSTK)

An Analysis of Pacific Sunwear (PSUN)

An Analysis of Cascade Bancorp (CACB)

An Analysis of Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)

An Analysis of TCF Financial Corporation (TCB)

An Analysis of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)

An Analysis of Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

I now have a different view of some of these stocks. For the most part, this is the result of changes in the share price. Obviously, if the share price increased dramatically since I discussed a stock, that stock is less attractive than when I wrote the post. I’ll discuss a few of these situations in the next week or so.

But, first, I want to remind you that there is one case in which the subsequent performance of the business caused me to conclude my original analysis was terribly wrong. I am, of course, referring to You can get some idea of my current view of the stock by reading a crow-eating post entitled “On Overstock’s Terrible Third Quarter“.

20 Questions

During 2006, three bloggers agreed to answer a set of 20 questions I presented them. These 20 questions are meant to introduce the blogger to my readers and encourage discussions regarding different approaches to investing.

I hope more bloggers will be willing to answer these questions in 2007. If you’re interested in answering these 20 questions and having those answers presented in a future post, please send me an email – and I’ll send you the questions.

The three bloggers featured in 2006 were Bill Rempel, George of Fat Pitch Financials, and MarketWizWannabe of RVB’S Market Musings. Here are their responses:

20 Questions for Bill Rempel

20 Questions for George of Fat Pitch Financials

20 Questions for MarketWizWannabe of RVB’s Market Musings

Bill has moved his blog to a new location. The other links are still current.

If you write a value investing blog and would like to be featured in an upcoming 20 questions post, please send an email with the URL of your blog.