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Andrew Kuhn August 9, 2019

All About Edge

December 23, 2017

by Geoff Gannon


Richard Beddard recently wrote a blog post about company strategy. And Nate Tobik recently wrote one about how you – as a stock picker – have no edge. I’d like you to read both those posts first. Then, come back here. Because I have something to say that combines these two ideas. It’ll be 3,000 words before our two storylines intersect, but I promise it’ll be worth it.

 

Stock Picking is Like Playing the Ponies – Only Better

Horse races use a pari-mutuel betting system. That is, a mutual betting system where the bets of all the gamblers are pooled, the odds adjust according to the bets these gamblers place, and the track takes a cut regardless of the outcome.

At the race track, a person placing a bet has a negative edge. He places a bet of $100. However, after the track takes its cut, it may be as if he now “owns” a bet of just $83.

At the stock exchange, a person placing a buy order has a positive edge. He places a bet of $100. However, after a year has passed, it may be as if he now “owns” a bet of $108.

All bets placed at a race track are generically negative edge bets. All buy orders placed at a stock exchange are generically positive edge bets.

In horse racing, the track generally has an edge over bettors. In stock picking, the buyer generally has an edge over the seller.

 

In the Long Run: The Buyers Win

The Kelly Criterion is a formula for maximizing the growth of your wealth over time. Any such formula works on three principles: 1) Never bet unless you have an edge, 2) The bigger your edge, the more you bet and 3) Don’t go broke.

In theory, the best way to grow your bankroll over time is to make the series of bets with the highest geometric mean. Math can prove the theory. But, only in theory. In practice, the best way to prove whether a system for growing your bankroll works over time is to back test the strategy. Pretend you made bets in the past you really didn’t. And see how your bankroll grows or shrinks as you move further and further into the back test’s future (which is, of course, still your past).

Try this with the two “genres” of stock bets:

1)      The 100% buy order genre

2)      And the 100% sell order genre

Okay. You’ve run multiple back tests. Now ask yourself…

Just how big was your best back test able to grow your bankroll over time by only placing buy orders – that is, never selling a stock. And just how long did it to take for your worst back test to go broke only placing buy orders.

Now compare this to back tests in the sell order genre.

Just how big was your best back test able to grow your

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Geoff Gannon August 5, 2019

Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH): Specialty Food Distributor Trading At Sharp Discount To Larger Peers, Attracting Activist Attention

Writeup by Thomas Niel

Innovative Food Holdings (OTC: IVFH),  is a micro-cap specialty foods distributor selling at a sharp discount to its peers. This discount is not irrational, as the company has two material risks:

  • IVFH is dependent on a third-party (US Foods) to distribute its specialty food products to restaurants and other food service customers. This contract is year-to-year, but limits the company’s appeal as a takeover candidate to US Foods’s rivals.
  • IVFH has made two acquisitions in order to diversify into the e-commerce space. Given IVFH’s lackluster M&A track record, investors assume this current endeavor will not pay off for shareholders.

The investing public have conveyed their displeasure via a large sell off in IVFH shares in the past 18 months. But in the chaos, one activist investor sees opportunity. James Pappas’s JCP Investment Management has acquired more than 10% of outstanding shares.

Will this activist be able to help realize IVFH’s intrinsic value? Is the business truly undervalued, or is the current market discount rational? Are there strategic or financial buyers out there to buy out IVFH, or at least buy its non-core units? Read on to see if IVFH presents a strong opportunity for your portfolio!

 

Background

Innovative Food Holdings is largely the creation of its CEO, Sam Klepfish. Klepfish previously worked in small-cap investment banking before taking the reins at IVFH in 2006. In the past 13 years, he has built the business via roll-up acquisitions. Some of these deals have worked, while others (The Fresh Diet) have destroyed shareholder value.

 

Company History

Innovative Food Holdings formed in 2004, the result of a reverse merger between public shell Fiber Application Systems Technology and privately-held Innovative Food Holdings. Subsequent to this creation, IFVH acquired Food Innovations in an all-stock deal.

In 2012, IFVH acquired Artisan Specialty Foods for $1.2m, as well as The Haley Group, a brand management company.

In 2014, IFVH merged with The Fresh Diet, Inc. in a $14m all-stock transaction. This deal proved to be a bust, with IVFH selling 90% of the unit to its former founder in 2016.

 

Since 2014, several bolt-on acquisitions have followed:

 

2014: Organic Food Brokers

2017: Oasis Sales and Marketing

2018: iGourmet

2018: Mouth Foods

 

Operating Segments

IVFH operates through these several units, covering several areas of the specialty foods industry (distribution, eCommerce, Brand Management).

 

Distribution (Direct To Chef)

IVFH’s Food Innovations, Inc. business is heavily supported by its logistics partner, US Foods Inc. Via its deal with US Foods, the company is able to source niche food products, then distribute them to end users (restaurants, hotels, casinos, hospitals, and other food service buyers) within 24-72 hours.

The distribution segment focuses on the gourmet side of the niche food business.Through Food Innovations and Artisan Specialty Foods, IFVH distributes over 7,000 perishable and specialty food and food products (including delicacies such as alligator and antelope). This segment produced 79% of revenues in 2018.

 

e-Commerce

Since 2018, IVFH has …

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