Kevin Wilde February 5, 2018

AA PLC (LSE:AA)

Opportunity:

  • Long-time market leader in UK roadside assistance.
  • Very little competition (RAC, Greenflag) in durable, niche industry.
  • Incredibly predictable, high return on capital business.
  • Strong competitive advantages: high customer retention, high switching costs, strong brand, excellent economies of scale / high barriers to entry.
  • Normalized FCF ~315MM; EV 3.440B; FCF / EV yield of 9.1%.

Risks:

  • Highly leveraged after sale by private equity owners.  
  • Mature, slow growing industry.
  • Exposure to loss of insurance referral business in the future (autonomous vehicles).
  • Recent management turnover.
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