Geoff Gannon July 9, 2008

Reading Graham’s Security Analysis: Care to Join Me?

Reading a thread over at GuruFocus reminded me of a common problem people have:

Have you actually read Security Analysis cover-to-cover? Has anyone on here?

I have. Several editions, several times.

A lot of people haven’t. I don’t think it’s a matter of dedication, enthusiasm, intellectual curiosity, etc. I think it’s a matter of being or not being a certain kind of reader.

I’m sure many, many people read a lot more than I do. But, I’m also sure I’m well-suited to reading Security Analysis on my own, because:

1) I never stop reading a book I enjoy

2) I’m a binge reader

3) I routinely read books written by dead guys

If this doesn’t describe you and you’ve never read Security Analysis cover-to-cover and you’d really, really like to – I have an idea.

I’m willing to do a weekly post on Security Analysis, taking anyone who wants to go on the journey through every chapter of the book. I’ll give you my best commentary on the text, and I’ll answer any questions you have. In return, I ask that you get the book and read a chapter a week.

Is anyone up for this?

If you’d like to join me, this is the required text:

Security Analysis: The Classic 1940 Edition

If you’ve neither taken a financial accounting course nor read Graham before, you’ll need this one as well:

The Interpretation of Financial Statements

***

To whet your appetite, here’s a previous comment I made about a passage in Security Analysis, in a post On Technical Analysis:

“…the influence of what we call analytical factors over the market price is both partial and indirect – partial, because it frequently competes with purely speculative factors which influence the price in the opposite direction; and indirect, because it acts through the intermediary of people’s sentiments and decisions. In other words, the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Rather should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.”

I’ve seen a lot of people cite this quote, without bothering to notice what’s really being said. Graham had a very broad mind, much broader than say someone like Buffett. That’s both a blessing and a curse. At several points in Security Analysis (and to a lesser extent in his other works), Graham can not help but explore an interesting topic more deeply than is strictly necessary for his primary purpose. In this case, Graham could have said what many have since interpreted him as saying: in the short run, stock prices often get out of whack; in the long run, they are governed by the intrinsic value of the underlying business. Of course, Graham didn’t say that. Instead he chose to describe the stock market in a way that should …

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Geoff Gannon July 8, 2008

Sir John Templeton Dead at 95

One of the world’s greatest investors has died.

 

“In almost every activity in life people try to go where the outlook is best…However, my contention is that if you are selecting publicly traded investments, you have to do the opposite. You are trying to buy a share at the lowest possible price in relation to what a corporation is worth. There is only one reason a stock is being offered at a bargain price: because other people are selling. There is no other reason.”

 

(From the Preface to Investing the Templeton Way)

There are already countless articles out there. Here are just a few:

Articles and Obits

Bloomberg

New York Times

Daily Telegraph

Washington Post

Globe and Mail

Books

Investing the Templeton Way: The Market-Beating Strategies of Value Investing’s Legendary Bargain Hunter

Templeton Plan: 21 Steps to Personal Success and Real Happiness

Worldwide Laws of Life: 200 Eternal Spiritual Principles

Discovering the Laws of Life

And remarkably, a negative post from a nasty, little blog that uses quotation marks in place of conversation, and preaches to the choir on the evils of preaching and choirs.…

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Geoff Gannon July 7, 2008

Good WSJ Articles – Monday, July 7th, 2008

No links – just headlines. If you subscribe to The Wall Street Journal in print, online, or by Kindle and don’t have time to read the whole paper, here’s a list of some of today’s articles you shouldn’t miss.

GM Weighs Layoffs, Sale of Brands

Merrill May Sell Bloomberg Stake, Some of BlackRock

Glaxo Seeks Guidance from Health Systems

Immelt Defends GE’s Wide Reach

Firms Train for EU Raids Amid Price-Fixing Probes

Pay Your Own Way: Firm Lets Workers Pick Salary

Gas Stations Hit Skids

Retro Ploy on Wall Street

Why Bother?

GM Weighs Layoffs, Sale of Brands

Only if you’re interested in General Motors (GM) or automakers. The branding thing has always baffled me, not just for GM but for carmakers generally. It seems poorly done, confusing, bound to lead to cannibalization, etc. – but I’m not a marketer.

By the way, John Bethel’s Controlled Greed is the best blog for GM shareholders.

Merrill May Sell Bloomberg Stake, Some of BlackRock

Shows the cost of being in a position where you need to make a deal. Who will buy the Bloomberg stake? Don’t know. Probably not Berkshire – it’s likely Bloomberg will be too expensive for Buffett’s taste, though I imagine it’s the kind of company he’d like to own at the right price (it’s also sized right).

Glaxo Seeks Guidance from Health Systems

Read for a sense of the trends in government and medicine.

Immelt Defends GE’s Wide Reach

Combine with 24/7 Wall St’s post and enjoy a GE twofer.

Firms Train for EU Raids Amid Price-Fixing Probes

Funnier than fiction.

Pay Your Own Way: Firm Lets Workers Pick Salary

Neat idea.

Gas Stations Hit Skids

Can you believe it? An article involving gas prices that contains info you probably didn’t know.

Retro Ploy on Wall Street

Because I’ve always thought rights offerings were underutilized and overstigmatized.

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Geoff Gannon July 6, 2008

News Items – Sunday, July 6th, 2008

News

With $35bn to Spare, Buffett is Poised to Feed Off the Bear

Blogs

GE’s Earnings, Immelt, And Jack’s Ghost (24/7 Wall St)

Controlled Greed: Life of the Blog (Controlled Greed)

Six Flags Is No Bargain Even at a Buck (Seeking Alpha)…

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Geoff Gannon July 5, 2008

Suggestions?

I’ve recently returned to blogging after a more than three month absence with my post “On Blogging”. In that post, I discussed some of the problems that come along with blogging. Having explored the downside of blogging, I’m asking for some help exploring the upside.

What did you like most about this site? The blog? The podcast? Which posts? Which episodes? What kinds of subjects? What would you like me to do that I haven’t yet done?

How can I make this site better for you?

Thanks…

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Geoff Gannon July 5, 2008

Controlled Greed – Life of the Blog

John Bethel of Controlled Greed has posted that blog’s latest results. He gives the individual performance of every stock pick.

Don’t be surprised if you see posts from me on some of these stocks, especially note Whirlpool (WHR)American Eagle (AEO), and Capital Southwest (CSWC).

Read Controlled Greed’s “Life of the Blog”

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Geoff Gannon July 3, 2008

News Items – Saturday July 5th, 2008

News

King of Beers? Only in America

Is Merrill Shopping Its Bloomberg Stake?

Is Bill Miller Toast?

Nightly Business Report Transcript: James Grant Interview

Blogs

BCE Reaches Final Buyout Agreement: What Next? (Controlled Greed)

A Flurry of Appearances for Bruce Berkowitz (Circle of Competence)…

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Geoff Gannon July 2, 2008

News Items – Wednesday July 2, 2008

News

My $650,100 Lunch with Warren Buffett

UnitedHealth Ends Options Suit, Cuts 4,000 Jobs

Circuit City Shares Fall as Blockbuster Yanks Bid

GM Shares Fall to Lowest Price since 1954; Merrill Suggests Bankruptcy

Microsoft, Yahoo’s Winding Road

Blogs

OneBeacon, White Mountain File Shelf Registration (24/7 Wall St.)

Fat Pitch Financials Portfolio Mid-Year Update (Fat Pitch Financials)

Some Blogging-Related Quick-Hits (Controlled Greed)

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Geoff Gannon July 1, 2008

On a Certain Candle Company’s Complex Cash Management

What strange times we live in when a candle company’s 10-Q reads like an investment bank’s:

The Company invests in a number of financial securities including debt instruments, preferred and common stocks, a joint venture, and a limited partnership that primarily invests in other limited partnerships who invest in real estate investment trusts and marketable securities…Certain preferred stocks are bought and sold on a short-term basis with the sole purpose of generating a profit on price differences…These securities are valued based on quoted prices in inactive markets… the Company held…ARS classified as available-for-sale securities. Auction rate securities are generally long term debt instruments that provide liquidity through a Dutch auction process that resets the applicable interest rate at predetermined intervals in days.…The recent uncertainties in the credit markets have prevented the Company and other investors from liquidating their holdings by selling their securities at par value… In the first quarter of fiscal year 2009…auctions for substantially all of our auction rate securities portfolio…began to fail due to insufficient buyers.

The candle company in question is Blyth (BTH). Jonathan Heller, formerly writing as Clyde Milton, recently wrote about Blyth. I wrote about the company back in September of 2006.

Read Jonathan’s new post

Read my old post

Despite Blyth’s ability to find imaginative new ways to lose cash, the stock is worth a look.

There may be a lesson in all this. There are certainly a number of bad puns.…

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Geoff Gannon July 1, 2008

On Pump Points for Politicians

Politicians are always telling us about gas prices.

So I thought maybe gas prices would like to tell us something about politicians for a change.

These “pump points” are based on gapitem data. I’ll explain gapitem in greater detail in a later post. For now, just know that it’s a unit of fuel consumption equal to gas consumption per person per day.

Gapitem = Gas per capita per diem

As the following scores use gapitem, a decrease in per capita gasoline consumption is just as effective in scoring highly as a decrease in the price per gallon of gasoline. The converse is also true – higher consumption, even at the same price per gallon, would result in a lower score.

Tree-hugging environmentalists will love this; laissez-faire capitalists not so much. The latter have a legitimate beef in that people may increase gas consumption for reasons other than necessity – and therefore gas consumption is not entirely non-discretionary. In that sense, higher gas consumption isn’t quite as ubiquitously onerous a burden as say increased tax revenues – but, it’s awfully close.

All scores are from 0.0 to 10.0 with 10.0 being the highest recorded score in that category.

Remember, these scores reflect increases in real per capita GDP after paying at the pump.

Presidents

1. Bill Clinton (10.0)
2. Ronald Reagan (8.6)
3. Jimmy Carter (5.9)
4. George W. Bush (4.2)
5. Gerald Ford (2.7)
6. George H.W. Bush (2.0)

Congresses

1. ’94 Republican Majority (10.0)
2. ’54 Democratic Majority (8.9)
3. ’06 Democratic Majority (0.0)

Party Presidents

1. Democratic Presidents (10.0)
2. Republican Presidents (6.2)

Party Congresses

1. Republican Congresses (10.0)
2. Democratic Congresses (8.2)

Majorities

1. Anti-Administration Majorities (10.0)
2. Pro-Administration Majorities (8.8)

Terms

1. Second-Terms (10.0)
2. First-Terms (4.5)

Real per capita GDP after paying at the pump tends to grow faster when the Congress opposes the President.

In other words, agreement in Washington tends to encourage stagnation in America.

Why?

No comment.…

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