Geoff Gannon October 13, 2006

Gold Kist Rejects $20 a Share Offer From Pilgrim’s Pride

Yesterday, the board of poultry producer Gold Kist (GKIS) rejected a $20 a share offer from rival Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC):

“(The) Board of Directors has rejected as inadequate Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation’s unsolicited tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of Gold Kist at a price of $20.00 per share, and strongly recommends that its stockholders not tender their shares.”

Gold Kist’s President and CEO John Bekkers explained the decision:

“Our Board unanimously determined that the offer is inadequate and does not fully reflect the value of Gold Kist, including the Company’s strong market position and future growth prospects… We have successfully positioned ourselves to take advantage of attractive growth opportunities in key markets and are confident in our prospects.”

The board claims it is continuing to explore strategic alternatives. The reasons outlined in support of the board’s decision are fairly standard. However, one point does ring true: “(the offer) was made at a time when Gold Kist’s stock price was temporarily depressed following a recent cyclical downturn in the industry.”

Some of you may remember I wrote about the offer when it was first made public (which was quite some time after Pilgrim presented the offer to Gold Kist’s board).

My post didn’t go over well, because I was misunderstood – no doubt because my writing was sloppy and unclear (as can often happen when employing a medium that allows for such a quick transmission of ideas). In my original post, I did not intend to say that individual investors who own shares of Gold Kist would be better off taking stock rather than cash. As they could trade their cash for stock anyway (i.e., they could buy shares of Pilgrim’s Pride for themselves), individual investors are obviously better off receiving that most liquid of assets – cash.

What I meant to say was that Gold Kist’s board should have requested a show of good faith from Pilgrim’s Pride before sitting down to discuss possible terms for a friendly deal. The sign they should have demanded was an all-stock offer of comparable value (based on current market prices) to the $20 a share all-cash offer.

Why? Because an all-cash offer allows Pilgrim’s Pride to exploit any general (and temporary) undervaluation of poultry producers in the stock market. Pilgrim’s Pride made an offer that was more than 50% above the quoted price for shares of Gold Kist. However, if all poultry producers are currently undervalued, that premium may not even make up for the market’s irrational pessimism towards the poultry companies.

Conversely, an all-stock offer would have the effect of eliminating any general (i.e., non-company specific) market pessimism. If Pilgrim’s Pride made such an offer, it would prove that they were not attempting to profit from avian flu fears; but, rather saw Gold Kist itself as a bargain – either because of alleged synergies, or because the company was simply undervalued relative to the other poultry producers.

In essence, an all-stock offer would represent a …

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Geoff Gannon October 12, 2006

20 Questions for George of Fat Pitch Financials

George has been active individual investor for 15 years, but only “saw the light” of value investing five years ago. He is the author of Fat Pitch Financials, a value investing blog inspired by the writings of Warren Buffett. One of the most popular features at Fat Pitch Financials is an exclusive detailed list of current going private transactions that is made available to members of the site.

1. Are you a value investor?

Yes, I’m a value investor. My investment philosophy is closely aligned to Warren Buffett’s. I look for wide moat companies selling at a price that provides a margin of safety. While I wait for those opportunities, I also invest in risk arbitrage and special situation opportunities.

2. What is value investing?

Value investing in my book is investing with a particular emphasis on intrinsic value. I view the intrinsic value of a company as the amount of money a rational person should be willing to pay for a company if it is viewed solely as a money printing machine. Value investing is then just the process of finding money printing machines that are selling for less than the present value of the future money that they will print. The key is buying the opportunities at a discount sufficient to provide a margin of safety.

3. What is your approach to investing?

My approach to investing involves breaking the process down into different components. I do a ton of reading to identify potential opportunities, especially those that appear to be giving a company a sustainable competitive advantage. I also run some fundamental stock screens to identify potential investment candidates. Then I usually run a preliminary analysis using my Fat Pitch Finder spreadsheet. If the numbers look acceptable, I then dig into the various SEC regulatory filings for that company. I look for corporate governance issues, competitive weaknesses, and hidden liabilities. Finally, I create a more refined intrinsic value analysis and determine my margin of safety for that stock. If the price of the stock is trading below my margin of safety, I buy it.

I also have created an elaborate system for scanning SEC filings for special situation opportunities. I then track them using Fat Pitch Financials Contributor’s Corner. These opportunities are assigned phases or stages and I also calculate their potential percent gain. I then determine the “expected” payout adjusted for risk of each opportunity and select the best options.

4. How do you evaluate a stock?

I avoid just evaluating a stock, but instead I try to focus on the business and its management. I determine the competitive position of the business, the reliability of management, and finally I estimate the intrinsic value of the business.

5. Why do you buy a stock?

I buy a stock when it is selling for a price that provides for a significant margin of safety and its business has a wide moat.

6. Why do you sell a stock?

I sell a stock when it becomes …

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Geoff Gannon October 12, 2006

Book Review: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Gannon On Investing’s contributing writer, Steven Rosales, reviews Edwin Lefèvre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Read Book Review

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Geoff Gannon October 11, 2006

Must Read Post: Congratulations and Condolences on the Kiplingers List

With his usual abundance of wit and shortage of tact, Bill Rempel skewers Kiplinger’s “Must Read” Bloggers List. The skewering is well deserved – and no, not just because neither Bill nor I am on the list. Read the whole post and you’ll see why Kiplinger’s list isn’t what it claims to be.

Warning: Bill’s post is brutally (and hilariously) honest.

By the way, I actually like a few of the blogs on this list (especially Controlled Greed). I also like some of the aggregators (especially Seeking Alpha), although they shouldn’t be on a “Must Read Bloggers” list.

Visit Bill Rempel’s Blog

Visit Controlled Greed

Visit Seeking Alpha

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Geoff Gannon October 10, 2006

Berkshire Hathaway Increases Stake in USG

On Friday, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) disclosed a 19% stake in USG (USG). National Indemnity, a subsidiary of Berkshire, acquired nearly 1.13 million shares at prices of $45.90 to $46.10. The total cost of these purchases was approximately $51.2 million.

From the amended 13D:

From August 23, 2006 through October 4, 2006, (National Indemnity) acquired 1,112,900 shares of USG Common Stock through open market purchases. The dates and prices at which those shares were purchased are as follows:

8/23 – 734,700 shares @ $45.90

8/24 – 7,000 shares @ $46.03

10/04 – 371,000 shares @ $46.10

As disclosed in Friday’s filing, Berkshire owns over 17 million shares of USG. At the time this post was written, Berkshire’s (disclosed) stake had a market value of about $854.8 million.

The Making of Berkshire’s Stake

On June 30, shares of USG traded at $72.93 (they had traded as high as $121.70 some months earlier). By July 11, the share price had fallen to $49.18. Since that time, the stock price has rarely stayed above $50 per share for any real length of time. This prolonged period of stock price inactivity let Berkshire greatly increase its stake in the company.

As of June 30, Berkshire held just 6.5 million shares of USG. Today, Berkshire owns more than 17 million shares of USG.

Berkshire already held 6.5 million shares of USG as early as November of 2000. That initial stake cost Berkshire approximately $16.90 per share.

However, the majority of Berkshire’s position in USG was bought within the last three or four months. So, the cost of Berkshire’s stake is now considerably higher.

Weakness in the U.S. housing market is the generally accepted explanation for the sharp decline in USG’s stock price during the second and third quarters of 2006. USG has considerable exposure to the housing market. In fact, “Sheetrock” is actually a USG brand name.…

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Geoff Gannon October 10, 2006

On Value Investing News

Today, George of Fat Pitch Financials announced his latest project, Value Investing News:

Value Investing News is a community driven value investing news site that will be a premiere destination for intelligent investors.

After you join value investing news, you can review the site’s top storiescheck out the latest value investing news, and submit your favorite stories from around the web. You can also learn more about the related stock market blog carnival, The Festival of Stocks.

The site is very well designed and easy to use. Stories are tagged and organized by stock ticker. Users who submit stories can also choose the most appropriate category for their submission. As a result, it’s very easy to find the kind of stories you’re most interested in.

I really like the site and encourage everyone to give it a try.

I’m sure I will be mentioning some stories I found at Value Investing News in the days ahead.

For more information on Value Investing News, read George’s announcement.

Join Value Investing News

Visit Fat Pitch Financials

Learn More About The Festival of Stocks

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Geoff Gannon October 10, 2006

Book Review: Bernard M. Baruch

Gannon On Investing’s newest contributing writer, Steven Rosales, reviews James Grant’s book, Bernard M. Baruch: The Adventures of a Wall Street Legend.

Read Book Review

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Geoff Gannon October 9, 2006

Last Chance to Pick Your Favorite Post

You can win a copy of Benjamin Graham’s “Security Analysis” (1934 edition)

All you have to do is pick your favorite post from this blog.

Favorite Post Contest

The Favorite Post Contest ends at midnight tonight.

Here’s how the contest works. You can either send me an email or comment to this post by clicking the “comments” link below. You select your favorite post from this blog. If that post ends up getting the most votes over the course of the contest, you’ll get a free copy of Benjamin Graham’s Security Analysis. The book is a modern reprint of the original 1934 edition. It’s currently available on Amazon.

Browse the “Posts By Ticker” and “Archives” links presented on the right sidebar to start your search for the best posts from the last year.

You can’t “nominate” a post someone else already chose. So, you need to pick a new favorite post.

Feel free to comment on the posts picked by others. I will give away another copy of Graham’s Security Analysis for the best comment.

So, for the best chance to win, pick a post and comment on the posts picked by others.…

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Geoff Gannon October 8, 2006

Festival of Stocks Reminder

The fifth edition of the Festival of Stocks is now up at Value Discipline.

The Festival of Stocks is a new blog carnival focused on highlighting bloggers’ best recent posts on stock market related topics.

This week’s Festival includes a review of Christopher Browne’s new book: “The Little Book of Value Investing”. The review was written by Gannon On Investing’s newest contributing writer, Steven Rosales.

Visit Festival of Stocks #5

Learn More About the Festival of Stocks

Visit Value Discipline

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Geoff Gannon October 7, 2006

Favorite Post Contest: Current Nominees

You can win a copy of Benjamin Graham’s “Security Analysis” (1934 edition)

All you have to do is pick your favorite post from this blog.

Current Nominees

On Technical Analysis

On Blyth

On Forbes List of The 400 Richest Americans

On Two Very Different Links

On Homebuilders

On Value Investing

On The Two That Got Away

On a New High and an Old Price

On Maintenance Cap-Ex and “The Pleasant Surprise”

On Paying a Fair Price

On Overstock

Favorite Post Contest

The Favorite Post Contest ends Monday, October 9th.

Here’s how the contest works. You can either send me an email or comment to this post by clicking the “comments” link below. You select your favorite post from this blog. If that post ends up getting the most votes over the course of the contest, you’ll get a free copy of Benjamin Graham’s Security Analysis. The book is a modern reprint of the original 1934 edition. It’s currently available on Amazon.

Browse the “Posts By Ticker” and “Archives” links presented on the right sidebar to start your search for the best posts from the last year.

You can’t “nominate” a post someone else already chose. So, you need to pick a new favorite post.

Feel free to comment on the posts picked by others. I will give away another copy of Graham’s Security Analysis for the best comment.

So, for the best chance to win, pick a post and comment on the posts picked by others.…

Read more