Geoff’s Writeups

Posts are sorted in alphabetical order by stock symbol to give you easier access to the information you are looking for. Click any letter in the navigation below to jump to the respective set of posts.

A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z| 0-9

A

“Farmer Mac” A.K.A. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM): The Freddie Mac of Farms and Ranches Has a P/E Below 9 and an ROE Above Most Banks

Alico (ALCO): A Florida Orange Grower Selling Land, Paying Down Debt, and Focusing on its Core Business

Argan (AGX): A Cheap, Cyclical Construction Company With a Ton of Cash and No Debt

Amadeus (AMADF): An Aggregation Platform and IT Business That Will Grow Along with Airline Passenger Volumes

A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK): A Dealer and Lender in Physical Gold

AutoNation (AN)

AutoNation (AN): A Cheap Cannibal with Minimal Downside

Avalon Holdings (AWX): An Unbelievably Cheap Controlled Company that Might Stay “Dead Money” For A Long Time

B

BAB (BABB): This Nano-Cap Franchisor of “Big Apple Bagel” Stores is the Smallest Stock I Know of That’s a Consistent Free Cash Flow Generator

Flanigan’s (BDL): A Cheap, Complicated Restaurant Chain Focused on South Florida

Booking Holdings (BKNG): A Fast Growing Industry Leader Built on Network Effects and a Strong Brand

Ball (BLL): A Debt Laden, “Economic Value Added” Obsessed Organization with a Super Wide Moat

Bonal (BONL): An Extremely Tiny, Extremely Illiquid Stock that Earns a Lot But Doesn’t Grow at All

Box (BOX): Negative Earnings and Free Cash Flow Disguise Beautiful Customer Economics

Bunzl (BNZL): A Distributor with 20 Straight Years of EPS Growth and 27 Straight Years of Dividend Growth – Facing a Virus That’ll Break At Least One of Those Streaks

Butler National Corp. (BUKS) : An Illiquid Ben Graham Style Mini-Conglomerate in Aerospace and Casinos

Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (BW): A Risky Stock Getting Activist Attention

BWX Technologies (BWXT): A Leveraged, Speculative, and Expensive Growth Stock that Might be Worth It

C

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE): A Second Opinion

Geoff’s Thoughts on Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

Carrier (CARR): A Big, Well-Known Business that Just Spun-off as a Cheap, Leveraged Stock

Cars.com (CARS): A Cheap Enough Stock with a Clear Catalyst and Tons of Rivals

Cimpress (CMPR)

Canterbury Park (CPHC): A Stock Selling for Less than the Sum of Two Parts – A Card Casino and 127-Acres of Land (Plus You Get a Horse Track for Free)

Car-Mart (CRMT): Like the Company, Hate the Industry

Computer Services Inc., “CSI” (CSVI)

Computer Services Inc. (CSVI): An Unlisted, But Super Predictable Company Trading at an Unleveraged P/E of 15 times Next Year’s Earnings

D

Dover Motorsports (DVD): Two Racetracks on 1,770 Acres and 65% of the TV Rights to 2 NASCAR Cup Series Races a Year for Just $60 million

Daily Journal (DJCO): A Stock Portfolio, Some Real Estate, Some Dying Newspapers, and a Growing Tech Company with Minimal Disclosures

Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN): A 100% Franchised Business Built on a “Morning Ritual”

DPI Holdings Berhad (KLSE:DPI): A Tiny Developing Market Aerosol Paint Manufacturer/Distributor with 16%+ Operating Margins, Wholesale Pricing Power and 12 to 15 Years of Growth Capex in the Bank

Digirad (DRD): A Cheap Microcap Transitioning into a Holding Company

E

NIC (EGOV): A Far Above Average Business at an Utterly Average Price

NIC (EGOV): Loses Its Biggest Customer (Texas) – Stock Drops 20% Instantly

Entercom Communications (ETM): The Second Largest Radio Station Owner in the U.S. Trades at a Lower EV/EBITDA Than its Debt Laden Peers

F

FFD Financial (FFDF): A Conservative Community Bank with a High ROE Trading at Less than 10x Net Income

Fairfax Financial Holdings (FRFHF): Large Upside Potential with Minimal Downside

Flanigan’s (BDL): A Cheap, Complicated Restaurant Chain Focused on South Florida

G

Gainsco (GANS): A Dark Nonstandard Auto Insurer That’s Cheap Based on Recent Underwriting Results

Games Workshop (GAW): The Wide Moat, Formerly Mismanaged Company Behind “Warhammer 40,000” Has Always Had Great IP And Now Finally Has the Right Strategy

General Electric (GE): Step Zero – Will We Ever Be Able to Value This Thing?

Gamehost (GHIFF): Operator of 3 “Local Monopoly” Type Casinos in Alberta, Canada – Spending the Minimum on Cap-Ex and Paying the Maximum in Dividends

Gamestop (GME): A Risky Stock that Just Might be the Cheapest Billion Dollar Stock in Today’s Market

GAP Inc. (GPS): A Market Leader in Apparel Retail Is Spinning Off Underperforming Assets Which Should Drive Shareholder Value, But Income Derived From a Third-Party Credit Card Agreement Overstates The Company’s Earning Power And Makes the Stock Too Risky

Green Brick Partners (GRBK): A Cheap, Complicated Homebuilder Focused on Dallas and Atlanta

Garrett Motion (GTX): Messy Financials, A Peculiar Indemnification Liability, & Typical Spin-off Dynamics Have Obfuscated Garrett Motion’s Attractive Underlying Economics

Grainger (GWW): Lower Prices, Higher Volumes

H

Hanesbrands (HBI): A Very Cheap, Very Leveraged Stock That’s #1 in an Industry that Changes So Little Even Warren Buffett Loves It

Hilton Food (HFG): A Super Predictable Meat Packer with Long-Term “Cost Plus” Contracts and Extreme Customer Concentration at an Expensive – But Actually Not Quite Too Expensive – Price

Hingham (HIFS): Good Yield Curve Now – But, Always Be Thinking About the Risk of the Bad Yield Curve Years to Come

Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS): A Cheap, Fast Growing Boston-Based Mortgage Bank with a P/E of 9 and a Growth Rate of 10%

Homasote (HMTC): A Perfect “Cocaine Brain” Candidate

I

IEH Corporation (IEHC): May Be a Good, Cheap Stock – But, Definitely in the “Too Hard” Pile for Now

Inseego (INSG): A Uniquely Positioned 5g Company

Interpublic (IPG): An Ad Agency Holding Company Trading at 10 times Free Cash Flow and Paying a Nearly 7% Dividend Yield

Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH): Specialty Food Distributor Trading At Sharp Discount To Larger Peers, Attracting Activist Attention

Investors Title Company (ITIC): A Strong, Consistently Profitable Regional Title Insurer Trading at a Premium to Book Value

J

j2 Global (JCOM): Half Cloud, Half Digital Media and All About Acquisitions

Jubilee Holdings Ltd (JUB): East Africa’s Largest and Most Profitable Insurer is Hidden Behind a Thinly Traded Stock

K

Kaanapali Land (KANP): A Super Illiquid Speculation on Hawaiian Land

Why I’ve Passed on Keweenaw Land Association (so far)

Keweenaw Land Association (KEWL)

Keweenaw Land Association: Buy Timberland at Appraisal Value – Get a Proxy Battle for Free

Revisiting Keweenaw Land Association (KEWL): The Annual Report and the Once Every 3-Year Appraisal of its Timberland Are Out

L

Libsyn (LSYN): CEO’s Departure Makes this Stock Even More Interesting

Libsyn (LSYN): A Pretty Cheap and Very Fast Growing Podcasting Company in an Industry with a Ton of Competition

Luby’s (LUB): Luby’s is Liquidating – What’s the CAGR Math Behind Possible Payouts and Timing?

M

Monarch Cement (MCEM): A Cement Company With 97 Straight Years of Dividends Trading at 1.2 Times Book Value

Marcus (MCS): Per Share Value of the Hotel Assets

Marcus (MCS): A Movie Theater and Hotel Stock Trading for Less than the Sum of Its Parts

Middleby (MIDD): A Serial Acquirer in the (Normally) Super Steady Business of Supplying Big Restaurant Chains with Kitchen Equipment

Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP)

Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP): 900 Acres of Hawaiian Resort Land for $250,000 an Acre

Miller Industries (MLR): A Pretty Good, But Very Cyclical Business that Sells its Car Wreckers and Car Carriers Through a Loyal Distributor Base

Mills Music Trust (MMTRS): A Pure Play Decades-Long Stream of Future Royalties on Old-Timey Songs Available at More Than an 8% Pre-Tax Yield

Monro (MNRO): A Durable Automotive Service Chain Executing a Roll-Up

MSCI

N

NACCO (NC)

NACCO (NC): First Earnings Report as a Standalone Company

NACCO (NC): A Contract Coal Miner with Stable Inflation Linked Profit Per Ton, a P/E of 10, a Strong Moat, and No Leverage

What’s NACCO’s Margin of Safety?

Does NACCO (NC) Have Any Peers?

NACCO (NC): The Stock Geoff Put 50% of His Portfolio Into

Northfield Precision Instruments Corporation (NFPC) – A Dark, Illiquid Nanocap at an Unlevered P/E of 6

Nuvera Communications (NUVR): A Microcap Telecom Company in Rural Minnesota With Stable Earnings and Effective Management That Is Trading At A Cheap Price to Free Cash Flow

O

OTC Markets Group (OTCM): A Far Above Average Quality Company at a Fair Enough Price

Otis (OTIS): The World’s Largest Elevator Company Gets the Vast Majority of Its Earnings From Maintenance Contracts With a 93% Retention Rate

P

Pendrell (PCOA) Follow-Up: Reading into a CEO’s Past and the Dangers of “Dark” Stocks

Pendrell (PCOA): A Company with Cash, a Tax Asset, and Almost No Liabilities

Points International (PCOM): A 10%+ Growth Business That’s 100% Funded by the Float from Simultaneously Buying and Selling Airline Miles

Parkit Enterprise (PKTEF): Activist Controlled Parking Lot Owner Looking to Monetize Holdings, Trading at a Discount to Net Asset Value

Psychemedics (PMD): A High Quality, Low Growth Business with a Dividend Yield Over 7% – And A Third of the Business About to Disappear

PRAP Japan (2449): Japan’s Healthiest Public Relations Firm – Trading At Just 4 Times EBIT

Q

R

Geoff’s SEC Filing Notes for: Resideo (REZI) (a Planned Honeywell Spin-off)

Follow-Up Interest Post: Resideo Technologies (REZI) – Stock Falls, My Interest Rises

Resideo Technologies (REZI): A Somewhat Cheap, But Also Somewhat Unsafe Spin-off from Honeywell

Resideo: Honeywell’s Boring, No-Growth Spin-off Might Manage to Actually Grow EPS for 3-5 Years

S

Sandridge Energy (SD): A Carl Icahn Controlled Post-Bankruptcy Oil Producer With 10-35 Years of Proved Reserves in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Kansas Trading at a Fraction of Net Asset Value

Standard Diversified (SDI / SDOIB): Get a Solid Tobacco Brand and a Solid Marijuana Brand at a 33% Discount to Their Market Value

ServiceMaster (SERV): Terminix is a Wide Moat Serial Acquirer of Pest Control Companies That’s Well Worth Adding to Your Watchlist

Silvercrest Asset Management (SAMG): A 4% Dividend Yield For an Asset Manager Focused on Super Wealthy Families and Institutions

Sonics & Materials (SIMA): A Profitable Net-Net Building A Cash Pile

Stella-Jones (STLJF): Long-Term Contracts Selling Utility Poles and Railroad Ties Add Up to A Predictable, Consistent Compounder that Unfortunately Has to Use Debt to Beat the Market

Summerset (SUM): A New Zealand Retirement Village Developer with “Float”

Sydney Airport (SYDDF): A Safe, Growing and Inflation-Protected Asset That’s Leveraged to the Hilt

T

Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST): America’s Biggest Burger King Franchisee Comes with “Rights of First Refusal”

F.W. Thorpe (TFW): A Good Business Making Durable Products that May Have Already Peaked

Tailored Brands (TLRD): Operating at the Focal-Point of the Retail Apocalypse and the Hedge Fund Armageddon, TLRD is a Stable Company With a P/E of 3

Transcat (TRNS): A Business Shifting from Distribution to Services and a Stock Shifting from Unknown and Unloved to Known and Loved

Truxton (TRUX): A One-Branch Nashville Private Bank and Wealth Manager Growing 10% a Year and Trading at a P/E of 14

Truxton (TRUX): A Small, Fast Growing Private Bank with Extremely Low Net Non-Interest Expense

U

U.S. Lime (USLM): A High Longevity Stock in a Low Competition Industry

United Plantations (UTDPLT): A Low-Cost Palm Oil Producer with 11 to 17% Returns on Equity and Excellent Capital Allocation

Universal Robina (UVRBF): A Good, Growing Filipino Branded Food and Drink Business – That’s Not Quite Cheap Enough for Value Investors

V

Vitreous Glass (VCI): A Low-Growth, High Dividend Yield Stock with Incredible Returns on Equity and Incredibly Frightening Supplier and Customer Concentration Risks

VieMed Healthcare (VMD): A Founder Led Canadian Listed U.S. Ventilator Company Faces the Risk of Competitive Bidding for its Medicare Patients Starting in 2021

Vertu Motors (VTU): A U.K. Car Dealer, “Davis Double Play”, and Geoff’s Latest Purchase

Vertu Motors (VTU): A Cheap and Safe U.K. Car Dealer

Vulcan International (VULC): A Dark, Illiquid Company Planning to Liquidate its Portfolio of Bank Stocks and Dissolve

W

Waste Management (WM): A Capital-Intensive, Wide-Moat Garbage Collector That A Middle-Aged Warren Buffett Would Like

Weight Watchers (WTW): Mistakes Made Over 4 Years of (Emotional) Volatility

X

ExxonMobil (XOM): A Blue-Chip Energy Company Likely to Provide Double-Digit Returns

Y

Z

Zooplus (ZO1)

0-9

Nekkar (0TT): Why We Bought It – And is It Cheap?

Norbit (4NK): A Norwegian Growth Company Trading At 8 Times 2019 EBITDA

EM Systems (4820): The Japanese Industry Leader in Pharmacy Software

Singular Diligence Archives

America’s Car-Mart (CRMT)

Ark Restaurants (ARKR)

Babcock & Wilcox (BWC)

Bank of Hawaii (BOH)

BOK Financial (BOKF)

Breeze-Eastern (BZC)

Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)

Ekornes (OSLO: EKO)

Fossil (FOSL)

Frost (CFR)

W.W. Grainger (GWW)

HomeServe (HSV)

Hunter Douglas (Amsterdam: HDG)

John Wiley & Sons (JW.A)

Life Time Fitness (LTM)

Luxottica (Borsa Italiana: LUX)

Movado (MOV)

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)

Omnicom (OMC)

Progressive (PGR)

Prosperity Bancshares (PB)

Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR)

Tandy Leather Factory (TLF)

The Restaurant Group (London: RTN)

Town Sports (CLUB)

Village Supermarket (VLGEA)

Weight Watchers (WTW)